A week ago, qualification in CONCACAF looked pretty cut and dry, especially if the two front runners, Costa Rica and the USA could take points on the road. They didn't. Now there are four teams all within three points of first place and a race that could get very very messy, as four teams compete for three guaranteed spots, and a late dark horse might throw another fork in the road. With each team having four games remaining, I'll analyze the last four international dates and what each team needs to do to qualify and who is going to emerge as the group's savage.

Remember remember the fifth of September. This one is really going to define three team's chances and establish at least two front runners. Costa Rica hosting Mexico is the biggest match, if Costa Rica wins they will clearly pull ahead in front of the pack, where if Mexico can get points at the monster that is Saprissa stadium then they will completely alter the group. Trinidad and Tobago travels to Honduras, where they must get points to revive their chances of qualifying. The same goes for El Salvador as they travel to the US in a last ditch effort to make the flight to SA2010.

Predicted Results:

Costa Rica 2:1 Mexico

Honduras 1:1 Trinidad and Tobago

United States 2:0 El Salvador

As the US and Costa Rica take steps to emerge, Honduras and Mexico square off in a critical match that will likely define who steps into the three spot, however Mexico falters at home again and keeps the last qualifying spot wide open. Trinidad and Tobago holds the match that will define qualification where they must get max points versus the US at home to keep their hopes alive. Costa Rica goes to El Salvador, who is now out of the running after failing to beat the US in the US.

Predicted Results:

Mexico 2:2 Honduras

T & T 1:2 United States

El Salvador 0:3 Costa Rica

With two matches remaining, Costa Rica sits pretty with 18 points and the US trails them with 16. Honduras sits precariously in third with 12 points and Mexico with 10. T&T clings to hope with 7, and El Salvador brings up the rear with 5. The battle for third continues as Mexico takes on El Salvador at home, and Honduras takes on the US at home. Costa Rica hosts T&T after officially qualifying.

Predicted Results:

Mexico 2:0 El Salvador

Honduras 1:1 United States

Costa Rica 1:1 T&T

The final match sends the two teams battling for the final qualifying spot on the road, and leaves the two front runners to play an irrelevant match in the US. Mexico travels to T&T, where they cannot get it done as Honduras takes care of business in El Salvador, leaving Mexico's fate in the balance with an unnamed South American power.

Predicted Results:

United States 2:1 Costa Rica

El Salvador 1:2 Honduras

T&T 1:1 Mexico

Final Standings:

United States: 20 points – qualify

Costa Rica: 19 points – qualify

Honduras: 16 points – qualify

Mexico: 14 points – playoff with 5th place South America team

Trinidad and Tobago: 9 points

El Salvador: 5 points

The X factor team is: The United States. Simply put, if the United States takes care of business in the September qualification week, they will make qualification a four horse race, virtually eliminate both El Salvador and Trinidad and Tobago, guarantee themselves a spot, and make qualification easier for both Costa Rica and Honduras as their late group matchups won't matter as much to the US. If the US stumbles in T&T, it opens the door for T&T and gives Honduras a late matchup against what will be a very inspired US team, which could cause problems for both nations in their quest to qualify. If the US stumbles, the early October qualification matches will certainly be very interesting.

For Costa Rica to qualify, they need to: Win at home. Relatively simple, 18 points will get them there. Anything else will be an added bonus.

For Honduras to qualify, they need to: Keep their current form. They have been pretty inconsistent, which is why they will likely barely sneak past Mexico. The match in Mexico during September is huge, they must get points, but they cannot overlook T&T four days before, as they must get max points at home.

The odd man out: Mexico. Plagued by inconsistency and the inability to deliver of late, Mexico scraped past the US in less then reassuring fashion. Provided the referee doesn't hand them any more matches, they will just fall short unless they start playing like the team they think they are all the time. Otherwise they can look forward to a very problematic home and away with someone along the lines of Argentine, Ecuador or Uruguay.

The Dark Horse: Trinidad and Tobago. Having recently added Bobby Zamora and Jlloyd Samuel, both EPL regulars to a squad that already includes the most dangerous striker in CONCACAF in Kenwyne Jones, the Soca Warriors could make a late push for qualification, especially if they are overlooked by Honduras before their critical match with Mexico.

The sorry sack: El Salvador. They looked like they had hope, but after their next two games, El Salv will be dead in the water.