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We Samba Through CONMEBOL Qualifying

Posted by Biggy on August 24, 2009  •  Comments

 

Certainly the appropriate next stop on the World Cup qualification tour is South America and CONMEBOL. The breeding ground of players like Pele and Maradonna has now given us Messi and Kaka, and brilliant technical teams like Brazil, who won this year's Confederations Cup. Qualification has been unpredictable in South America, and the four teams that get automatic spots will have negotiated a maze of mines, with peril at every step. Four games remain to separate five teams who are all within 5 points of each other for the fourth qualification spot and the playoff fifth spot. For everyone in this group, its time to show up and bring the goods, or watch the show from home next summer.


September 5th

Argentina hosts Brazil in a critical match at home for the Argentinians. Behind two Messi goals, they sneak past Luis Fabiano and the Brazilians to get a critical three points. The rule is good teams don't give away points at home, and they followed suit. Uruguay thumps eliminated Peru on the road as Paraguay does the same to end Bolivia's hopes of qualification. Columbia steals three points with a late winner at home against Ecuador and Chile continues their torrid streak with a win against Venezuela.

Predicted Results:

Columbia 1:0 Ecuador

Peru 0:2 Uruguay

Paraguay 3:1 Bolivia

Argentina 2:1 Brazil

Chile 2:0 Venezuela


September 9th

More marquee match ups see Brazil taking control of the group at home by knocking off Chile, and a streaking Argentina knocking off an out of form Paraguay team who looked so good only four days previous. Ecuador defeats Bolivia on the road and Venezuela takes care of business versus Peru. Columbia's extremely stingy defense coupled with their lack of finishing leaves them with a draw in Uruguay.

Predicted Results

Bolivia 0:1 Ecuador

Uruguay 0:0 Columbia

Paraguay 0:1 Argentina

Venezuela 2:0 Peru

Brazil 3:1 Chile


October 10th

Things begin to get tight as Brazil, Argentina, and Chile all lock up spots in the World Cup, rendering the other two games impossibly important. Ecuador ensures itself a last day battle as they beat Uruguay at home, and Paraguay says no guay to Venezuela and continues their perilous journey toward qualification with a win.

Predicted Results

Bolivia 0:2 Brazil

Argentina 3:1 Peru

Columbia 1:2 Chile

Ecuador 1:0 Uruguay

Venezuela 0:1 Paraguay


October 13th

The battle for the final qualification spot is resolved on the final day of qualification as Ecuador faces a must win game in Chile while Paraguay nurses a two point lead squaring off with Columbia at home. Paraguay needs a draw to qualify, but snags a win that ends up being irrelevant as Ecuador cannot get it done in Chile. Argentina beats a Uruguay squad that has little life to them, and in the most irrelevant match ever, Peru downs Bolivia. Brazil locks up the group and establishes itself as one of the top three teams coming into South Africa with a victory over Venezuela where many of its youngsters shine and leave the rest of the world in fear of what is to come from the Brazilians.

Paraguay 1:0 Columbia

Uruguay 0:1 Argentina

Peru 2:1 Bolivia

Brazil 2:0 Venezuela

Chile 2:1 Ecuador


Final Standings:

Brazil: 36 points - qualify

Chile: 35 points - qualify

Argentina: 34 points - qualify

Paraguay: 31 points - qualify

Ecuador: 26 points – qualify via playoff win versus Mexico

Uruguay: 22 points

Columbia: 21 points

Venezuela: 20 points

Bolivia: 12 points

Peru: 10 points

For Brazil to head to SA2010 they must: Continue their dominance. They are the team to beat, and pretty much no one has been able to do so. If they keep their form of this summer where not only did they beat teams but they smashed them, they will continue to sail through qualification.

For Chile to head to SA2010 they must: Beat up on the middle of the pack. Dates with Venezuela, Ecuador and Columbia stand between them and qualification. If they beat the teams they should, then a game against Argentina in Argentina will have no impact on their qualification.

The X factor team is: Argentina. Their next match is at home versus Brazil. A loss would hurt their chances drastically and possibly throw the team into a tailspin. I feel they will win that match, but if they play poorly at home, the hangover effect could cause them to slip up in Paraguay as well. If they do, their final tie against Uruguay in Uruguay could be the key to them qualifying or possibly ending up as the playoff team. Mexico beware if Argentina slips out of the top four.

The last man in is: Paraguay. They can lock up a spot early if they can win both matches in September. If not, they will play their final two ties against teams that will desperately need points, so the sooner they lock up a spot, the less they will have to deal with critical matches in hostile cities.

The odd man out is: Ecuador. Funny that they are the odd man out, because they won't actually be out. They will then play Mexico in a home and away series, where a draw at Mexico will leave them in a great spot to qualify, and they will after a two nil win at home. They have too much class not to beat an extremely inconsistent Mexico side.

The actual odd man out: Uruguay. Stumbles at home cost Uruguay a shot to get to SA2010, as the stinginess of Columbia and the attack of Argentina take critical points away from a team that needs max points at home to sneak into a playoff spot. If they can get more points at home, their goal differential will drastically improve their chances to qualify as it is much better then Ecuador's.

The team with the toughest road: Columbia. With no easy games left (ie Bolivia and Peru) and games against three of the top five, Columbia is going to need to play at its highest level to get a shot at the World Cup. Unfortunately for them, playing too many teams of class hurts them as they slip to the seven spot.

The team that needs a miracle: Venezuela. They recently have won back to back world crowns against some of the planet's toughest competition. Unfortunately for them, that was in the Miss Universe contest, and beauty doesn't count for much on the pitch, unless you are CR7. Venezuela faces each of the top three teams, and will need divine intervention to qualify.

The sad sacks: Bolivia and Peru share this honor, and even get their own sad sack final against one another in the last match of qualification. Tragically, no one will watch or care who wins. Oh well.


Do you think the Brazilians will continue to rule qualification? Think Argentina is in more trouble then we give them credit for? Think Uruguay or Columbia will make a run? Let us know below how you see qualification going down.

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Comments

Thanks for the preview guys. I\'m a big Ecuador supporter am looking forward to these next 4 (or 6) matches.
#1 - Jeremy - 08/27/2009 - 09:25
no worries man, glad we could help, I think Ecuador is in pretty good shape, but time will tell
#2 - Biggy - 08/27/2009 - 20:28
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